The largest side effect of COVID vaccine is to accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic in a short-term (This is not a joke, I am serious)

People all over the world were excited to see the NEJM paper on Israel's mass vaccination result and I was one of them (though I think the BCG Tokyo 172 strain vaccine is safer and more effective).

BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765  

Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose.

In short, this paper claims the vaccination efficacy would be around 90%. Wow, what a great efficacy! Fast mass vaccination will end the pandemic soon.

Why hadn't we seen a dramatic drop in Israel's country-level data though Israel had been vaccinating its people at a lightning speed?

However, I had been wondering why we hadn't seen a dramatic drop in Israel's country-level data though Israel had been vaccinating its people at a lightning speed. The below is a comparison between Israel and Tunisia (no vaccination).

I questioned this to the experts but they just said "The NEJM paper is right. Wait for a few more weeks and we'll see a drop." Mmm. This reminds me of the experience with the coronavirus. In Japan, the coronavirus risk is no more than seasonal influenza but we have waited and wasted a whole year. 

So, I decided to read the NEJM paper. To be honest, I had not read the NEJM paper as I put more importance on reality than the paper.

With the wisdom of Twitter crowds, two important issues are found. Let me focus on the one issue which is critical and clear.

The NEJM paper arbitrarily excludes 18 deaths data which shows a negative effect of vaccination in the short term, which changes the conclusions significantly

The paper uses the 1:1 exact matching method which seems to be sophisticated. However, if you look into the detail, you'll find that the paper excludes 18 deaths data which shows a negative vaccine effect arbitrarily.

This critical point is found by @prof_shahar, who is a real expert in this field. We should follow him.

If the 18 deaths data shows a similar trend with the main analysis of 41 deaths, this would not be a big problem, but the reality is that the 18 deaths data shows a negative effect of vaccination; 11 deaths from vaccinated and 7 deaths from unvaccinated. And 18 deaths is 44% of 41 deaths, which would change the conclusion significantly.

The vaccine efficacy is not around 90% but 50%

The below are the conclusions incorporating the 18 deaths into the analysis.

  • The total vaccine efficacy is not around 90% but 50%.
  • The vaccine efficacy is smaller for the elderly, probably 30 to 40%. Pfizer and Israel's gov should know the exact figure.
  • The largest short-term side effect is to increase COVID-19 mortality risk by 40 to 50% in the two weeks after the 1st dose

The largest short-term side effect: the two-week COVID acceleration by 1st dose

Yes, you are reading it right. 1st dose of Pfizer vaccination is increasing the COVID-19 mortality risk in the short-term; for two weeks. Let me call this surprising side effect "the two-week COVID acceleration effect by 1st dose". It is also consistent with the Denmark large cohort study as below.


Israel fast mass vaccination may have killed more people with COVID-19 than doing nothing

With this information in mind, let's look at Israel's country-level time-series data. 

The one below is frightening, isn't it?

The FT article below claims that the disparity of 60+ yr cases/hospitalization from 0-59 yr cases/hospitalization trend would be the vaccination effect. 
 
Israel provides first signs of mass vaccination driving down virus cases
https://www.ft.com/content/0cdc8563-1e6d-4089-bedb-b0f675c0d683

I created a chart showing the number of 1st dose vaccination for 60+ yr and 0-59 yr. 

Comparing with this chart, I reached the opposite conclusion;

  • The relative increase of 60+ yr cases/hospitalization over 0-59 yr cases/hospitalization from late Dec to early Jan is a sign of the two-week COVID acceleration effect by 1st dose of 60+ yr
  • The relative increase of 0-59 yr cases/hospitalization over 60+ yr cases/hospitalization from early Jan is a sign of the two-week COVID acceleration effect by 1st dose of 0-59 yr

This is not a history but an ongoing tragedy. Though the absolute number would be small, younger Israeli may die more due to the vaccination. I really hope someone can stop this.

There are two more countries/regions carrying out fast mass vaccination with Pfizer one; British Gibraltar and Isle of Man

Are there any countries/regions other than Israel carrying out fast mass vaccination with Pfizer vaccine? Yes, there are two more; British Gibraltar and Isle of Man. Look at the below charts.

Two possible causes to skyrocket COVID-19 cases and deaths during the mass vaccination

As Isle of Man had a low prevalence of COVID-19 before vaccination starts, I suspect the Pfizer vaccine can stimulate and cause COVID-19 for those who have SARS-CoV-2 inside their body without any symptoms.

How can Gibraltar and Isle of Man skyrocket COVID-19 cases and deaths during the mass vaccination? I hypothesize the two causes below.

  1. Stimulating and causing COVID-19 for those who have SARS-CoV-2 inside their body without any symptoms
  2. Increasing the susceptivity of vaccinated in the two weeks

I don't think only the Pfizer vaccine is causing the two-week COVID acceleration effect by 1st dose. The other vaccines by the other manufactures seem to be causing the same effect looking at UAE, etc. 

I really wish everyone look at the real data objectively getting out of the mass hysteria, and make decisions.

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(COMMENTS reached the max) If I were North American/West European/Australian, I would take BCG vaccination now against the novel coronavirus pandemic.

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