Showing posts from May, 2020

High-quality analysis of the former East/West Germany testing the BCG hypothesis... if the herd(external) immunity effect is added...

I like reading negative papers about the BCG hypothesis since they give me another angle to think critically about the BCG hypothesis.

Here comes a report analyzing the former East/West Germany testing the BCG hypothesis. Interestingly, this report comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York!

The Spread of COVID-19 and the BCG Vaccine: A Natural Experiment in Reunified Germany
Number 926
May 2020
Authors: Richard Bluhm and Maxim L. Pinkovskiy

This is a report and not a paper peer-reviewed, but this report is much higher quality than the peer-reviewed paper from Israel. Probably, the authors are econometrics researchers and their analytical skills are much better than Dr. Ferguson or Dr. Nishiura.

Don't the authors know the herd(external) immunity effect?This report clearly analyzes the big difference between the former East/West Germany. I…

Dr. Ferguson of Imperial College is wrong. Dr. Levitt and Dr. Miyasaka are right. There is "prior immunity".