COVID-19 in Victoria is coming to an end not because of its strictest lockdown but due to its herd immunity.

In Australia, only Victoria state has been hit hard by COVID-19. And Victoria state has been taking very draconian measures to suppress it. And its cases/deaths of COVID-19 have been decreasing these days.

So, we feel that its draconian way and mass testing & quarantine to suppress it WORKS. Is this TRUE?

If you are a reader of this blog, you've already known that the countries with a similar BCG history had a similar COVID-19 course. Denmark and Austria are the countries which have a similar BCG history with Victoria though I cannot collect their coverage ratio during the universal immunization period. Some countries have low BCG immunization ratio even it was mandatory.

How Victoria state, Denmark, and Austria have been doing with COVID-19? Here is the chart of new death per million.

Don't you notice the heights of curves are quite similar?
The shapes of curves are a bit different. While the shapes of Denmark and Austria are almost identical; the Gompertz curve, the shape of Victoria state looks bilaterally symmetric.

I moved the curve of Victoria state 4 months backward as below. 

The strictest lockdown in the world seems to delay the peak of the curve for one month. Other than that, I don't see an effect of its lockdown. I suspect if this worthed the strictest lockdown.

Below is the chart of cumulative deaths per million. From the BCG vaccination history, I can predict that Victoria will reach the plateau of Denmark level; around 110 deaths per million. But the reality of Victoria is already passing Austria and Denmark. I don't see the lockdown has decreased the number of deaths. 


The good news is that Victoria seems close to herd immunity. The bad news is that its lockdown delayed the peak of deaths for one month, but it has not decreased the number of deaths. We can also predict that Victoria will see the second wave of cases, but significantly fewer deaths, after mid-January.

Once COVID-19 explodes, lockdown, mass-testing & quarantine, or masks do not work, only delaying a bit. We feel it worths when we sacrifice something, but we should question whether the sacrifice worths it objectively.


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