Please leave comments here regarding the BCG hypothesis, the correlation between COVID-19 and BCG vaccination
Please leave your comments/inputs here regarding the BCG hypothesis, the correlation between COVID-19 and BCG vaccination.
Please be aware that the Blogger comment system seems buggy and some comments don't get published. I try to check the incoming comments and post the comments if I notice they are not published, but I'm not perfect and my time is limited on this.
Additional information for reference
(Added on 8 Apr)
From various sources, we guess the BCG vaccination policies in Germany as below. As most information is in German, German experts' inputs are highly appreciated.
The policies seemed to be different by states in FDG but we couldn't get clear information.
(Added on 8 Apr)
Another fantastic correlation analysis was published. This analysis uses the doubling time of deaths. This figure is best for comparing the countries since 1) infected cases depend heavily on test policy and test number 2) no matter what the size of countries is 3) no matter when the virus arrived.
(Added on 9 Apr)
Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine has created an excellent website where you can compare countries graphically by using deaths/cases per 1M population regardless of the sizes of the countries.
I picked up 12 countries and categorized them as below.
- No mandatory BCG: Italy
- Past mandatory BCG using a weak strain: France, U.K.
- Current or until recent mandatory BCG using a weak strain: Ireland, Norway
- Current or until recent mandatory BCG using a middle strain (BCG Russia/Bulgaria/S4-Jena): Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria
- Current or until recent mandatory BCG using a strong strain (BCG Tokyo): Japan, Thailand, Taiwan
- Mixed BCG policy of 2) and 4): Germany
Please look at the chart below. You can see that deaths per 1M population are 1>2>3>4>5 and Germany is in between 2 and 4.
By looking at the deaths per 1M population chart above, there is a possibility that east European countries are just late starters and they might catch up west European countries.
So let's look at cases per 1M population which are a lead indicator of death tolls.
From the case chart below, you can see all countries are close to a plateau. I guess east European countries will continue to increase their death tolls for a month or so but they will not become like west European countries.
In addition, you can see clearly that the countries using BCG Tokyo strain are doing very well. BCG Tokyo strain seems to be more effective than BCG Russia.