Healthcare quality and capacity do not matter for COVID-19
Let me check/challenge this statement in a short way.
From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, I picked up the countries which have more cases than Australia where I live.
Then, I picked up the countries which have more than 500 cases/1M population as this indicator links to the pressure to the healthcare system.
Next, I calculated the case-fatality-rate, CFR. It's very simple; total deaths divided by total cases.
And, finally, but, most importantly, collect BCG coverage and strain information. As we've already known, http://www.bcgatlas.org/ is not only incomplete but also inaccurate, especially for the old days, but let me scan roughly for this analysis. Please forgive me if some are still inaccurate. I don't want to spend two to three hours for each country.
Below is the table sorted by CFR.
As learned, the BCG vaccine is said to strengthen our trained immune system, and as a result, people who got vaccinated can recover by themselves with high probability. Immunologists have told us that cytokine storm is the main cause of COVID-19 deaths and the BCG vaccine, especially the Tokyo strain, has the effect to strengthen our feature to prevent cytokine storm.
Let me add a daily CFR* analysis of Italy and Belgium.
* I calculate daily CFR as new deaths divided by average new cases from 21 days ago to 7 days ago since days from the first symptom to death are 14. And I displayed from the day when the number of deaths passed 10.
Healthcare quality and capacity do not matter much. BCG matters much more. Whether the healthcare system collapses or not doesn't really matter. The death rates are determined by BCG coverage and strain from the beginning, not by the quality and capacity of the healthcare.
Many budgets are spent on increasing the number of ICUs, mechanical ventilators, extracorporeal membrane oxygenations (ECMO), but those seem to have little impact on reducing the deaths. Just delaying the deaths for a few days. Spending on the BCG vaccine will be far more effective and far less costly.
Flattening the curve has little effect on the death rates, it just delays the number of deaths.
Sources (accessed on 20 Apr)